Playoff Previews
Western Conference
#1 Dallas vs #8 Golden State
It’s the teacher versus the pupil as Don Nelson leads the Warriors to the post season for the 1st time in 13 seasons against the 67 win Mavericks team coached by Avery Johnson. The Warriors won all three games against the Mavericks this season, though one was during Dallas’s 0-4 start, and one was against a skeleton Maverick crew the last week of the season. Golden State closed the season on a 9-1 streak including victories over Utah, Phoenix, and Houston. The Warriors can’t defend a lick, but with their undersized lineup, they speed up the game considerably and allow teams to take open shots early in the shot clock. I don’t know that Golden State will win a game in Dallas, but with one of the best home court advantages in basketball, (30-11) a sweep is unlikely. Baron Davis would have to play incredibly well to pull the upset, but I suspect the Mavericks will not overlook this red hot squad.
Prediction: Dallas in 6.
#2 Phoenix vs #7 Los Angeles
Other than the depleted Wizards, I think the Lakers are playing the worst basketball of any team entering the playoffs. This is the same matchup as last year in name only. The Suns have Amare Stoudamire back in the fold, while the Lakers have become a team that stands around and watches Kobe Bryant play ball. The Lakers play as little defense as the Suns do but have far less fire power. Plus, the Suns have Raja Bell who has proven capable of getting under the skin of Bryant. The Suns have probably overworked Steve Nash more than they probably would have liked in the regular season and will look to deliver the kill shot early in this series. Kobe might score 200 points, but he’s unlikely to win more than one game in the series.
Prediction: Suns in 5.
#3 San Antonio vs #6 Denver
The Nuggets are finally reaping the rewards of the Superstar pairing of Alan Iverson and Carmelo Anthony. Winning 10 of their final 11 games, the Nuggets appear to matchup well with the Spurs on paper. Marcus Camby is a formidable defensive adversary for Tim Duncan in the post. Bruce Bowen will have some trouble with Carmelo Anthony’s diversified offense, But you have to ask yourself if a team with limited experience winning together will make the big stops late against the nucleus of a two time champion. This should be must watch TV, but I think the Spurs win a fantastic contrast of styles.
Prediction: Spurs in 6.
#4 Utah vs #5 Houston
No pressure Rockets, but despite the fact that your records are nearly identical (52-30 to 51-31), and you lost 3 out of to Utah this season, there is no excuse for you not to win this series. You have the two best players in the series (Yao Ming & McGrady). You have two elite perimeter defenders in Shane Battier and T-Mac. You have surrounded Yao Ming with a full complement of 3 point gunners (Luther Head, Battier, Rafer Alston) to help space the floor. You have the home court advantage for the 1st time in the career of your superstars. Your opponent has less playoff experience than you do. The Jazz will not beat themselves. They will play smart and continue to exploit Yao Ming’s lack of mobility in pick-and-roll defense. Matt Harpring, Paul Millsap, and Gordon Giricek give the Jazz a more consistent scoring punch off the bench. But my money is on Tracy McGrady making this more than just a one and done experience for your hometown hoopers.
Prediction: Rockets in 7.
Eastern Conference
#1 Detroit vs #8 Orlando
Those of you who are interested in watching these two teams play raise your hands. That’s what I thought. I am somewhat looking forward to Grant Hill’s return to the playoffs for the 1st time since his broken foot as a Piston in 1999. Hill is little more than a good role player at this point, but it will still be kind of cool to see him suit it up in the 2nd season. I’d like Orlando’s chances much more if they weren’t relying so heavily on Hedo Turkoglu for offense. Hedo is a notorious post season wall flower, and I don’t like his chances of lighting up the octopus known as Tayshaun Prince. Dwight Howard gets his 1st cup of playoff coffee at age 21, but little else.
Prediction: Pistons in 5.
#2 Cleveland vs #7 Washington
A rematch from 2006 in name only, this series lost much of its luster following the back to back injuries of Wizards All Stars Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. I feel bad for the Wizards, I really do. Cleveland won 50 games despite being little more than a one man Lebron band. Larry Hughes will need to eventually live up to his contract if the Cavs are to compete for championships. Cleveland could stand to get better production out of their PG position, but they won’t need it for this mismatch.
Prediction: Cavs in 4.
#3 Toronto vs #6 New Jersey
The Eastern Conference playoffs were turned upside down on the last day of the regular season. New Jersey’s blow out win over Chicago, not only knocked the Bulls out of the #2 seed, but moved New Jersey into a much more winnable matchup with the very young Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are the anti-Nets. No one expected a division title out of these fellows, and their roster isn’t dotted with a bevy of household names. Anthony Parker, Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, and the lightning fast TJ Ford are going to surprise many casual NBA fans who may not even be able to pick Chris Bosh out of a lineup. The Nets were expected to compete for the eastern conference title. Injuries to center Nenad Krstic and general disinterest from Vince Carter and Jason Kidd through the meat of the season led to a lackluster record. This could be a swan song run for Vince Carter(who’s a free agent) and J-Kidd at the building that Carter once filled. I think the Nets experience wins out. Expect a lot of uptempo, high scoring games.
Prediction: Nets in 7.
#4 Miami vs #5 Chicago
This should be a phenomenal series. Ben Wallace did not play particularly well in his 1st year with the Bulls, but the playoffs are a great chance for redemption. Wallace’s ability to keep Shaq at bay could determine whether Miami has enough offense to win the series. Is Dwayne Wade healthy enough to defend his title? Do the Heat have the perimeter defenders to chase Ben Gordon and Kirk Heinrich around the screens? Late season additions have buoyed both teams’ efforts. Eddie Jones left Memphis with 1/3 of the season remaining and has been a great bench performer. Bulls rookie Tyrus Thomas, a recent addition to Scott Skiles rotation, is an X-factor in what should be a close series.
Prediction: Heat in 7.
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