Early Office Pool Advice

While you won’t be filling out your office pool brackets for another 2 weeks, allow me to give you a head start on your co-workers. The way I see it only 8 teams stand a legitimate chance to cut down the nets in Atlanta. If you want to win your pool, you’d better have one of these 8 teams going all the way.

#1 UCLA Bruins (Current Vegas Odds of Winning 7-1)
The Bruins, who lost last year in the championship game to Florida, are a much more complete team this season. PG Darrin Collison has been a surprising upgrade to Laker 1st round draft pick Jordan Farmar. His safety 1st style has led to much more production in the half court and many more opportunities for the likely Pac 10 player of the year Arron Afflalo. UCLA is shooting close to 50% from the field and 39% from long distance. The club features no seniors but six rotation players from last year’s final four squad.

#2 Florida Gators (Current Vegas Odds of Winning 5-2)
Despite two recent losses to the tourney bound Vanderbilt Commodores and the “Big Baby”-less LSU Tigers. It’s tough to pick against the defending champions. The Gators sport the best starting five in college basketball. Rarely do you see this much talent be so unselfish. Joakim Noah could probably put up 20 and 10 on any other team, but he’s content to be a defensive stopper and glue guy with the Gators. Kansas and North Carolina are the only 2 teams with the talent to run up and down the court for 40 minutes with the Chomping Champs. However, most teams will try to slow it down against the Gators and close out quickly their best three point shooter Lee Humphrey.

#3 North Carolina Tarheels (Current Vegas Odds of Winning 7-2)
This team might be too young to win six straight post-season games, but their raw talent can only be matched by the Kansas Jayhawks. College basketball’s best transition game can be neutralized if you take care of the basketball, and the ‘Heels perimeter defense can be spotty at times. I have a feeling the secret to their success will be the play of freshman PG Ty Lawson. I haven’t seen a college guard this fast since Alan Iverson. Plus, Carolina may have history on its side. Since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, the ACC has the most tournament wins (219), best winning percentage (.682), most sweet 16’s (61), and most regional finals (32), and most Final Fours (21). At least one ACC team has been in the Final Four in 16 of the last 19 years.

#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (Current Vegas Odds of Winning
7-2)
This young Buckeyes team has shown a propensity to play to the level of the competition. They’ve played two extremely close games with a Penn State team that has only one win in the Big 10. They also played an incredible up-and-down game at UNC earlier this season without Greg Oden. In close games they have show an inability to get the ball inside to Oden which means crunch time scoring will likely fall to freshman PG Mike Conley Jr. Still, the Buckeyes are one of the scariest teams defensively with Oden blocking 3.5 shots a game and pulling down 9.5 rebounds. It will take a good 3 point shooting team with at least a little size inside to prevent the Buckeyes from surpassing last season’s surprising 2nd round exit.


#5 Kansas Jayhawks (Current Vegas Odds of Winning 6-1)
This team is simply on fire right now. The Jayhawks have won their Big 12 games by an average margin of 19 points! Nine players see regular minutes for Kansas, and they are all a threat to score. The Jayhawks have bowed out in the 1st round in two consecutive tournaments, but that trend will end this year. The 2005 Jayhawks were just not that good and were probably over seeded as a #4 when they got nipped by an extremely un-athletic Bucknell team. Last year’s team had the talent (see their 40 point destruction of Texas in the Big 12 championship game) but little experience. Now as sophomores, Julian Wright, Brandon Rush, and Mario Chalmers will know what it takes to win big games. Few teams have a frontcourt athlete like freshman Darell Arthur, and his fellow frosh Sherron Collins looks like a young Jacque Vaughan, but with a better jump shot. Kansas averages 9.5 steals and 6.5 blocks per game which leads to plenty of easy buckets.

#6 Texas A&M Aggies (Current Vegas Odds of Winning 8-1)
This team would be the Anti-Kansas. They don’t have a ton of talent. They don’t want to run up and down the floor with you. But they do have senior leadership from their All-American PG Acie Law IV. This guy is capable of a Danny Manning-esque run through the dance. No one is better at controlling the tempo of the game than Law. It doesn’t matter what type of team you are, when you play the Aggies, it’s a knockdown drag-out defensive brawl. Their defense is so consistent; they have to be considered a legit threat to win the big dance. Joe Jones needs to stay out of foul trouble to maximize this team’s chances.

#7 Georgetown Hoyas (Current Vegas Odds of Winning 8-1)
This is somewhat a hunch pick, but this might be my favorite team to watch this season. Imagine running the Princeton, back-door offense with legit McDonald’s All-Americans. It’s an absolute nightmare for opposing teams. Imagine having to bang on 7’2 290LB Roy Hibbert for 35 seconds at a time, while also bumping off back screens for cuts to the bucket. The Hoyas will absolutely wear you down by the middle of the second half. This is one of the more disciplined teams that you will see, and they have a great two way player that no one talks about named Jeff Green. John Thompson III’s team does not force turnovers like his father’s Hoya squads, but they are equally dangerous.

#8 Memphis Tigers (Current Vegas Odds of Winning 12-1)
Currently riding the longest winning streak in America at 17 games, the Tigers might be the biggest enigma in the field. No one is really sure how good this team can be, because they have hardly been challenged in the extremely suspect CUSA. I don’t think this team is as good as last year’s squad which featured 2 NBA 1st round picks (Rodney Carney and Shawne Williams) plus a decent PG in Darius Washington. That being said, they are incredible front running team that can take you out of your game quickly with a barrage of three point shots and suffocating pressure defense. I’m not a fan of John Calipari as a big game coach but he’s not asked to do much with this team. Joey Dorsey is an excellent anchor on defense, but a huge liability late in games at the free throw line (48%). Memphis will have better athletes than pretty much anyone they play in March, but I just don’t know if they are battle tested enough to win it all.