Sweet 16 Thursday Matchups

Sweet 16 Preview

Thursday
South Region (San Antonio)

#1 Ohio State (32-3) vs #5 Tennessee (24-10)
These two teams played on January 11th with Ohio State escaping with a 68-66 win. Greg Oden dominated the undersized Vols with 24 points 15 rebounds 4 assists and 3 blocks. The game was close due to 20 Buckeye turnovers. Tennessee offense should play into the hands of Ohio State. The Vols love to shoot the 3, and the Buckeyes want to play a zone with Oden acting as the anchor. Tennessee will have to increase the tempo to try and take Oden out of the game. Tennessee is not a great defensive team in the half court, but can create turnovers with their zone press. The Vols will need to force a minimum of 15 turnovers to have a chance in this one. I still don’t think it will be enough. Prediction: Ohio State 72 Tennessee 66.

#2 Memphis (32-3) vs #3 Texas A&M (27-6)
This might be the best matchup of the Sweet 16. Memphis is arguably the deepest and most talented team in the field, but they are extremely young (no seniors). The Tigers, winners of 24 straight games, have not played a team the caliber of Texas A&M all season. Memphis will mix a 1-3-1 half court trap, full court man, and an assortment of pressure defenses at the Aggies in an effort to tire AC Law IV. Memphis over plays the passing lanes at all times and invites their opponents to challenge shot blocking machine Joey Dorsey. Joe Jones must stay out of foul trouble for the Aggies to keep Dorsey from dominating the paint. If swingman Chris Douglas-Roberts ankle injury hinders his play, the Tigers could struggle against the Aggies extremely sound man defense. Memphis PG Andre Allen can be a turnover machine at times, and the other Memphis guards would just assume shoot 3’s than drive to the bucket. All of the Memphis players go to the glass for 2nd chance shots which makes them vulnerable to the fast break the other way. Despite shooting 75% from the foul line in the NCAA tournament, the Tigers normally lose points at the line. I like Memphis a bunch, but you won’t see me bet against Law IV in a virtual home game for the Aggies. Prediction: Texas A&M 74 Memphis 72.

West Region
#1 Kansas (32-4) vs #4 Southern Illinois (29-6)
This is probably the biggest mismatch in the Sweet 16. The Salukis have not beaten a top 25 team all season. They are hellacious defenders, but they didn’t exactly face a ton of fire power in Holy Cross and Virginia Tech to get to this point. Kansas has about 7 different guys capable of scoring 20 a night, and even in a loss to Texas A&M earlier this season the Aggies could hardly slow down the tempo. Expect the Jayhawks to run for 40 minutes and simply overwhelm the offensively challenged Salukis.
Prediction: PAIN….Kansas 75 Southern Illinois 58.

#2 UCLA (28-5) vs #3 Pittsburgh (29-7)
The Master versus the Pupil…Pitt coach Jamie Dixon coached under UCLA’s Ben Howland when he was at Pitt. Both teams play hard-nosed man-to-man defense. Pitt’s only obvious advantage is down low where Aaron Gray (14 points 9.6 rebounds) can certainly hold his own. The question is, can Pitt get him the ball with the type of ball pressure that Darren Collison will put on the Panthers PG’s. Pitt nearly choked away a 17 point, 2nd half lead against an inferior VCU backcourt in the last round. UCLA has been winning ugly all season long, and I believe they have the more dependable offensive weapon in Aaron Afflallo. This one won’t be pretty. Take the under.
Prediction: UCLA 59 Pittsburgh 54.