Monday, March 02, 2009

Texans Busy; Rockets Recover

So the D-line for the Texans on Opening Day will likely by $35 million, $10.2 million, $15.4 million, $54 million. While those are NFL figures meaning those monies aren't usually fully realized, those are the contracts given to Antonio Smith, Travis Johnson, Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams by the Texans. Let's see last year Smith had 3.5 sacks, Johnson had 1 sack, same with Okoye and Williams had 12. That's 17.5 sacks total and none played on a good defense last year since neither the Texans nor the Cardinals had an above average defense. (I can acknowledge that the Cards did figure it out in the postseason beating the Falcons, Panther & Eagles before nearly knocking off the Steelers.) That sounds like some pretty poor spending right? That's one way to look at it.
Here's the other way. Smith is leaps and bounds better than any DE that has started opposite Mario in the last 3 years. He's an every down lineman that likely slides inside on 3rd down and comes from the same system (unlike Weaver). The new DC Frank Bush had him during his first 3 years in Arizona and obviously doesn't sign off on this deal unless he thinks Smith can help him turn this defense into something special b/c now Bush's reputation is on the line.

So too is new D-Line coach Bill Kollar's. It's already a sparkling one with his D-Line work that he brings to Houston. He now has three No.1 picks to work with, plus high-motor, hungry youngsters like Tim Bulman and DelJuan Robinson. Not to mention the draft picks, because the Smith signing should not preclude the Texans from grabbing an impact d-lineman in the draft anytime after the 15th selection.

Bottom line - I think the Smith signing is a good one that could prove to be a real difference maker. Not ready to say overwhelmingly good, but not one that has me saying, "What were they thinking?"
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Now the Orlovsky signing is much trickier. I can't say that I've seen anything from Orlovsky with the Lions that has me feeling good about him being next in line when/if Matt Schaub goes down. Maybe except for this throw at Reliant Stadium. I laid out my list of the three quarterbacks I thought the Texans should have most strongly considered in free agency last week.

(Frerotte was released but has not been sought by really any team yet. Ramsey was the first player the Texans brought in, yet he left town without a contract, which surprised many in the media including myself. Fitzpatrick was signed on Friday by the Bills potentially to compete with a somewhat unstable starter, Trent Edwards.)

Orlovsky is young at just 25, he'll be 26 when this season begins and while there is no way he deserved this kind of money, he might not be awful. (How's that for a ringing endorsement!!) My biggest issue is that he really didn't do anything to suggest he's a good fit for what the Texans do. In his brief NFL career, he has not been particularly accurate, which is a must in this offense - much more important than having a strong arm. Neither Schaub nor Rosenfels has what is considered a strong arm both, though, are very accurate.Interesting note....
- Orlovsky was the 145th pick in the 2005 draft, listed at 6-5, 230 lbs
His stats in Detroit: 150-272, (55%), 1,676 yds, 8 TDs, 8 INTs. Passer rating=71.3 in 4 seasons. Signed by Texans for 3-yrs - worth roughly $9 million.
- Schaub was the 90th pick in the 2004 draft, listed at 6-5, 235 lbs.
His stats in Atlanta: 84-161 (52%), 1,033 yds, 6 TDs, 6 INTs. Passer rating=69.2 in 3 seasons.
Signed by Texans for 6-yrs - worth roughly $48 million.

So Schaub played for a better team and had worse numbers, and got more than 5 times the money and was just handed the starters job two years ago. Neither did anything to warrant either of their respective deals and it of course also cost the Texans the additional assets in draft picks. Just an interesting note.
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The Rockets actually won the more important of the two games this weekend since they topped Minnesota, from the western conference, as opposed to Chicago, from the east. They are still 4th in the west. (Had they lost last night they would now be tied for 6th with Utah who has won 8 in a row!) But they also have a 24-10 conference record which is 3rd best, and only 1 game wirse than San Antonio for 2nd best in the best. Any tiebreaking goodies they can have in their pocket this season could loom large.

The loss to the Bulls was no fluke, no matter what players the Rockets have used. They will likely be the worst closing team in the playoffs. They may win a few close games and they will likely hang onto double figure leads, but they are prone to cluelessness in crunch time. Their best player is reliant on his teammates getting him the ball. Yao must re-post on the opposite block when he is getting fronted and on the way to the other side he is almost always open with the fronting defender inevitably out of position. But Yao has to do that - MOVE. His teammates MUST swing the ball and get it to him. Lately Yao gets fronted and the whole team goes into shutdown mode on offense.

Currently they also do not have a losing record against any of the playoff hopefuls, aside from the Lakers. Overall record against the best in the west (top 8 teams) is 10-8, only the Lakers have been better. (Lakers 16-5, Spurs 11-9, Nuggets 11-10, Hornets 11-10, Jazz 9-9, Blazers 8-13, Suns 7-12, Mavericks 6-13)

Here's the notable remaining schedule...
Team (rec)...................remaining games
vs. Lakers (0-2)..........Home 3/11, Road 4/3
vs. Spurs (1-1)............ Home 3/14, Road 3/22
vs. Nuggets (2-1).........Road 3/9
vs. Blazers (1-1).........Home 4/5
vs. Hornets (1-1).........Road 3/16, Home 4/13
vs. Jazz (2-0)...............Road 3/4 & 3/24
vs. Mavericks (2-1)....Home 4/15
vs. Suns (1-1)..............Home 3/6, Road 4/1
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