NL Central Preview. Astros 2nd, but just barely

CUBS......95-67, 1st
Six of the 8 Cubs in their projected line-up have been All-Stars. It's possible that Rich Harden will only be their 4th starter, following Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and possibly Ted Lilly. Harden, when healthy, has Cy Young stuff. Carlos Marmol has unbelievable stuff, but since they were worried about him taking over for the departed Kerry Wood as their closer, they added Kevin Gregg as insurance. Gregg likely starts the year as the closer and while long-term, this might be a deal they regret if the pitcher they traded to Florida to get Gregg, Jose Ceda, turns into something special, but it's a very good move for this year.
This team is light years ahead of the other in the NL central. Baseball is a funny game, but it would have to be side-splitting for the Cubs not to win this division.
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ASTROS......85-77...2nd
Must have a healthy group. Their backup position players are really a nice group, but any time without Lance Berkman or Carlos Lee could be crippling. Same goes for the health of the starting rotation. There is no organizational depth in starting pitching. Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez must both be strong and effective all season long and give the team 65+ starts. The other 3 starters are all card-carrying members of the Tommy John surgery survival club. Brian Moehler was a very nice surprise last year, now either Mike Hampton or Russ Ortiz must be the 2009 version of Moehler. Bullpen on paper is the best in the division and among the best in the league, but they can't be overused - especially early in the season.
They need to be more patient at the plate, work counts, get on base more often and not make it such a struggle to score runs. Their offense could be top 3rd in the league, but they need to strike out less and walk more.
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CARDINALS......84-78...3rd
Best 5th place team in baseball. I'm not convinced both Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel can produce like they did a year ago. Also, Troy Glaus isn't going to approach the 544 at-bats he had last year, since he begins this season on the shelf for maybe two months or more after shoulder surgery. Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter could be the makings of a very strong rotation but while Wellemeyer and Lohse gave them 65 starts last year, Wainwright and Carpenter combined to make just 23.
Their bullpen is a group of no-names as usual, but a lot of young arms with really good stuff. Not to mention the huge boost from the addition by subtraction. Bye-bye Jason Isrignhausen and his 7 blown saves in 19 chances.
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REDS......84-78...4th
Real nice young starting pitching with Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. Could also really have something in Micah Owings and Homer Bailey. If workhorse Aaron Harang bounces back, and I think he will, then the Reds are right behind the Cubs in terms of the starting rotation. Their bully is fair, better if Francisco Cordero limits his blowups.
Offense should be fun to watch with the addition of Willy Taveras at the top of the order and Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion swinging the big sticks. Might be inconsistent though with such a heavy lean on such young players. Not quite there yet, but getting real close to having a real good young club. They are the best bet in the division to win more games than they did a year ago (Just 74 wins in '08)
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BREWERS......82-80...5th
Milwaukee is a little bit like the Astros in that they are all offense and no starting pitching. At least no confidence in their starting rotation. Their offense could rival any in the league and youngsters like Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Cecil Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun could all conceivably be getting better. The pitching however is a major concern. Jeff Suppan is probably the opening day starter - that is a huge bright red flag. Their promising young arms in Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra have skills but combined they've been on a major league mound 65 times. Ever heard of Carlos Villanueva? Probably 20% of you have. He's their closer. Yikes.
They're gonna score a lot of runs. They're going to give up a lot runs. That equals essentially an average team.
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PIRATES......74-88...6th
It's still last place, but it's getting much more respectable. Maybe their trio of Ian Snell, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm will produce results more commensurate with their above average stuff. Nice pickups with Jeff Karstens and Russ Ohlendorf, either of whom could be closer to a front emd rather than a back end of the rotation pitcher. Their bullpen, led by underrated closer Matt Capps, should be pretty good with set-up talents like John Grabow and Craig Hansen.
That is all well and good, but with both Jason Bay and Xavier Nady moved at last season's trade deadline there is a gaping hole in their lineup. They will struggle to score runs. The LaRoche's, veteran Adam and youngster Andy, might be a nice start, but there is very little power and very few - if any - proven commodities in their lineup.
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Just after finishing this write-up, I happened across these projected NL standings from accuscore.com that painted a very optomistic picture for the Astros and it happens to produce very similar "guesses" to the ones I have submitted above.