Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Pro Bowl predictions

Time for me to take a stab at the AFC offensive Pro Bowlers.
Nothing from me on the O-line and specialists. The line vote is usually a popularity and notoriety contest, plus they don't really seem to vote by position. Chris Myers has been the Texans most consistent lineman this year and has played at a Pro Bowl level in my opinion, but I'd be shocked, downright floored if he made the squad.

Neil Rackers might be the next kicker in line, but my guess is Sebastian Janikowski gets the nod - he leads the AFC in scoring by a wide margin, has made the most FGs and he's 3rd in AFC in kickoffs that result in touchbacks.

Since I don't expect any Texans defensive player to make the squad, no defense ballot from me either. Mario Williams was very close in my opinion, but Indy's ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney played at their usual Pro Bowl level and even though Babin is a classless, bitter man, he had a Pro Bowl season at DE for the Titans, so those would be my three choices. No other Texans defensive player was even worthy of cursory consideration. That probably goes without saying - so there you go.

So on to my choices.
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QB
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Philip Rivers

Brady would get my vote for league MVP, so that choice was easy. Not true regarding the selecion of Manning and Rivers over Matt Cassel. Because both San Diego and Indianapolis had so many other issues, mainly injuries, they were incredibly reliant on their QBs to be consistently excellent. Cassel is unfortunately hurt a bit by the fact that the team around him was actually much better than either of the groups surrounding Manning or Rivers. His 3001 yards place him 18th in the league, 214 yards per game is 23rd (right behind the below-average Mark Sanchez) and 22 other QBs complete a higher percentage of their passers. Someone had to get left out - still hard for me to do that to a QB with 27 TDs and just 5 INTs. Don't worry, when Brady heads to Dallas for the Super Bowl, Cassel will get to replace him - just like he did with the Pats in '08.

RB
Arian Foster
Jamaal Charles
Maurice Jones-Drew

Foster is the league's best RB this year and Charles is about to become the first RB to average over 6 yards per carry since 1973! (among RBs w/ at least 120 carries). I give the nod to MJD over Chris Johnson, given that MJD is 2nd in NFL in rushing yds per game and is the main reason Jacksonville is still in the playoff chase with 1 game remaining.

FB
Vonta Leach
Leach is about to finish up his 2nd straight carry-less season (he has 3 career carries in 91 career NFL games). He is the lead blocker for the best runner in the league and has been popping opposing defenders all year long.

WR
Andre Johnson
Dwayne Bowe
Brandon Lloyd
* Reggie Wayne

Yes, the league's best WR gets a Pro Bowl nod even after missing a pair of games with a bum ankle. He played in 12 others through the pain and led the league in yards per game. Bowe turned into a TD machine, his 15 TD receptions are the most in the league since Randy Moss had 23 in 2007. Lloyd gets the nod over Wayne, but just barely. Lloyd had more yards and twice as many TDs as Wayne and a ridiculous 93% of his receptions went for first downs. Besides Wayne will get the spot when Johnson is ruled out due to injury.

TE
Antonio Gates
Marcedes Lewis

Gates will end up missing 6 entire games this year, yet he'll likely lead all AFC TE in yards and TDs. Lewis gets the nod over Ben Watson, Zach Miller & Dustin Keller - as all three benefit from Dallas Clark's injury. Incidentally, Clark's replacement Jacob Tamme has 60 receptions in the 9 games since Clark went on IR. He trails Watson by just 1 reception for tops in the AFC.

The official announcement comes down at 6pm today via the NFL Network. Remember the Pro Bowl will be played after the conference title games and before the Super Bowl - so there ought to be a good handful of replacement players needing to be ready for the call to fly to Hawai'i.

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